UNITED STATES: The control of the most significant authoritative body of the United States Congress is at stake in Tuesday’s midterm elections, along with the inevitable outcome of incumbent President Joe Biden’s waning popularity and political agenda for the two years remaining in his term.
While the Republicans are speeding ahead with a strong chance of regaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats are having a hard time keeping their numbers high in the Senate.
A Republican takeover of either House would be enough to shift the political climate in America, derailing most of the legislation advocated by Biden and his fellow blue-collar colleagues.
Historical Trajectory
It is typically a historical record that a party in power loses House seats halfway through the president’s four-year term in office.
President Bush famously said in 2006 that Republicans took a “thumping” in midterms, while former President Barack Obama changed the stereotype and described the loss of 63 House seats in the 2010 election as “shellacking.”
In 2018, two years into Trump’s presidency, the Republicans had relinquished 41 House seats.
Now, two years into Biden’s term, Republicans can begin their master stroke of a strategic takeover and gain only five seats in the 435-member House.
Fearing a Republican takeover, 31 House Democrats announced their retirement or sought another office, in comparison to just 20 Republicans doing the same.
The groundwork laid out for the upcoming elections has been strategic and meticulous, with the two parties going hard in specific red and blue states, whose vote tips the scales.
Republican lawmakers passed new maps in large swing states like Florida and Texas, while Dems focused on New York.
Political experts suggest the Republicans have gained three seats through redistricting, which takes it up a slight notch higher than past cycles but is still significant enough to affect the Democrats’ razor-thin House majority.
Senate Shift
Republicans need one seat to control the U.S. Senate, which is currently split 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote.
Meanwhile, Republican and Trump-supported candidates, including television doctor Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and former football star Herschel Walker in Georgia, have proved to be more daunting than their Democrat competitors.
Biden’s luck running out?
Midterms 2022 will prove immensely influential to Joe Biden’s waning popularity, as a poll revealed only a 40% approval rate. The same poll suggested nearly 69% of Americans thought the country was headed in the wrong direction and only 18% agreed it was on the right track.
Former President Donald Trump is not on the ballot this season, but the winning streak of candidates backed by him contesting in the midterms will ensure a Republican majority for his smooth re-entry into the White House in 2024.
Trump was ambiguous about a potential 2024 presidential run, saying “I will probably have to do it again, but stay tuned,” teasing an event he has with Republican Senate candidate in Ohio, JD Vance, for Monday. “We have a big, big rally.” “Stay tuned for tomorrow night.”
Democrats have suffered several setbacks in the last few months, with the overturning of the historical abortion protections of Roe v. Wade resulting in a surge of blue-shirt protests nationwide. The struggling economy is the main priority in the elections, therefore, raising the stakes for Biden and his Democrats.
However, the blues are still betting that legal troubles for the former Republican Trump and legal proceedings for the Jan. 6 Capitol attack will fend off Republican attacks and set them low.
Closing arguments to set the tone
Political leaders made their final attempts on Sunday to steer the midterms’ course in their favour, with several top Democrats framing the upcoming elections as a test of American democracy.
President Joe Biden targeted the Republican hangover of claiming voter fraud in the last presidential election. For those election deniers, “there are only two outcomes for any election: either they win or they were cheated,” Biden said.
Biden also referred to the recent assault on Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, accusing Republicans of thriving in political violence. “There’s never been a time in my career where we’ve glorified violence based on a political preference,” Biden said.
Meanwhile, Republicans clapped back, saying they were more focused on addressing pertinent economic issues and insisting that the Democrats had sown seeds of hatred against the GOP.
Amid a reign of swirling terror and uncertainty regarding the fate of LGBTQ+ rights, universal healthcare, abortion rights, and surging inflation in the U.S., the country is poised to make a significant decision this term and cast a vote that could alter the course of prominent issues, for better or worse.
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