POLAND: If exit polls indicating a victory for an opposition alliance led by Donald Tusk are accurate, Poland’s ruling populists appear to be in for an electoral defeat, which would be one of the most significant political turnarounds in recent years in Europe.
According to exit polls, the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which is now in power, garnered the most votes, but Tusk’s Civic Coalition and two other opposition parties should be able to gain a majority in parliament.
Tusk declared victory after the polls closed, claiming PiS had no chance of winning a third term.
He declared the end of the PiS regime at a party event in Warsaw, adding, “We won democracy, we won freedom, we won our free, beloved Poland … this day will be remembered in history as a bright day, the rebirth of Poland.”
A new exit poll showed PiS at 36.6% and Tusk’s Civic Coalition at 31%. However, 13.5% of the vote went to the centre-right Third Way and 8.6% to the left-leaning Lewica, two groups that may form a coalition with Tusk. The far-right Confederation underperformed expectations as a potential ally for a PiS administration. The opposition coalition is expected to secure 248 of the 460 seats, the polls suggest.
Poland’s presidential election has seen a record turnout of over 70%, the highest since the country’s fall from communism. However, official results have been slow to arrive, with lengthy lines at voting places and some voters waiting six hours in line in Wrocław.
The outcome is expected to change Poland’s domestic political landscape and thaw relations with Brussels, which had soured due to PiS’s attacks on the independent judiciary and concerns about the rule of law.
It follows months of campaigning in which PiS accused Tusk of being a foreign stooge who would ruin Poland while he emphasised the harm done to Poland over the previous eight years.
Despite a referendum on migration and other issues, PiS failed to gain support. When the official results are out, the primary focus will be on PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda, who has the right to build a coalition.
Borys Budka, head of the Civic Coalition’s parliamentary faction, believes Duda will first approach the opposition coalition. He believes the president will need to appoint the majority candidate in the Sejm. Cezary Tomczyk, a member of the Civic Coalition, requests the president to allow the democratic camp to select a prime minister candidate, with Donald Tusk being the obvious choice.
Duda plans to approach the party with the most parliamentary seats first, potentially preventing the opposition from acting for up to two weeks while attempting to PiS form a government.
However, if the findings of the exit polls are mostly true, PiS does not appear to have a road to government despite statements made by party officials on Monday morning that they would begin negotiations with other parties in an effort to form a functional coalition.
PiS has been accused of politicizing state institutions, including the Supreme Court chamber. Opposition members are concerned about potential attempts by PiS and Jarosław Kaczynski to sabotage the election. However, Budka believes PiS cannot challenge the election through the courts or other channels, as Kaczyński appears exhausted and unlikely to start a revolution.
The PiS administration’s likely end was seen as a step forward for women and LGBTQ+ rights, with progressive Poles celebrating the exit poll findings. Talking about PiS crackdown on abortion rights, Civic Coalition MP Barbara Nowacka criticized the party and emphasized the importance of this day for Polish women, predicting that young women would be less afraid to get pregnant and go to the doctor.
Also Read: Poland Election: Acrimonious Campaign Spilts Nation ahead of Crucial Vote
