UNITED KINGDOM: Over a year ago, Oliver Dowden addressed the Conservative spring conference, extolling the “calm suburbia of Hertfordshire,” which is home to his own Hertsmere constituency, and vowing to preserve the “privet hedges of a free people.” Nevertheless, the proverbial privet hedges of the deputy prime minister now have big holes in them after Thursday’s local elections. His party was compelled to give up control of the legitimately democratic Hertfordshire council for the first time this millennium.
A coalition of anti-Tory forces is now in their path. The Liberal Democrats have nine seats, whereas Labour has 14, after winning in Potters Bar and Borehamwood. The sentiment of the electorate can understand this miserable sequence of results for Sunak’s party.
After 24 years of Tory rule in Hertsmere, “Not Conservative” was the phrase people used the most to express their choices for voting on Friday in Borehamwood. Prior to [Tony] Blair’s landslide victory in 1997, it is true that Labour earned 47% of the vote in the 1995 local elections, compared to 35% today, based on former Tory advisor Sam Freedman who mentioned, It is true that in the 1995 locals, before [Tony] Blair’s 1997 landslide, Labour got a 47% share of the vote, compared with 35% now.”
“But the Tories were in almost exactly the same place at 25%. The main shift between 1995 and 2023 is in the distribution of the anti-Tory vote, not its existence. Sunak is in just as bad a position as [John] Major was then, and he added without even a once-in-a-generation political talent like Blair to blame it on”.
A Lib Dem strategist mentioned, “Former Conservative strongholds, from Surrey to Stratford-on-Avon, are now looking more vulnerable than ever,” adding, “Cabinet ministers who have always taken their voters for granted will be looking nervously over their shoulders at the threat posed by the Lib Dems.”
Furthermore, the Conservatives are having difficulty with current structural modifications. There is no longer a bank of right-leaning adherents that the party can depend on to come together behind its agenda in a general election, unlike in previous campaigns since the time of David Cameron.
Nevertheless, despite the themes of the outcome being more apparent, there was an impression in Hertsmere that people remain impatient to be driven by any party or leader. This is the greatest obstacle facing Starmer in the run-up to the election.
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