SWITZERLAND: The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has announced the onset of a climate-heating El Niño event, with officials issuing a warning that preparedness for extreme weather events is essential to saving lives and sustaining livelihoods.
The last significant El Niño occurred in 2016, a year that remains the hottest on record. Now, the emergence of the new El Niño exacerbates the ongoing global heating caused by human-induced carbon emissions, creating a troubling “double whammy” effect, as noted by the WMO.
This combination intensifies extreme weather events, leading to unprecedented temperature records being shattered both on land and in the oceans worldwide.
The WMO has stated that there is now a 90% likelihood of the El Niño event persisting until the conclusion of 2023, with moderate strength or higher. According to US authorities’ estimate in early June, there is a 56% probability of a robust and exceptionally hot El Niño occurring by the year’s end.
This climatic phenomenon, known as El Niño, is primarily driven by natural fluctuations in Pacific winds and ocean temperatures, leading to irregular shifts between El Niño and its cooler counterpart, La Niña. It is the planet’s largest natural climate phenomenon and impacts billions of people.
El Niño typically results in increased instances of flooding in the southern regions of the United States, South America, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, while eastern Australia, Indonesia, south Asia, and Central America often experience severe heatwaves and droughts.
“The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” stated Petteri Taalas, the secretary-general of the WMO.
“The declaration by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilise preparations. Early warnings and anticipatory action for extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to saving lives and livelihoods,” added Taalas.
In recent months, temperatures have reached record levels. In the UK, the average June temperature record was broken by almost a degree, while the country’s oceans experienced an unprecedented heatwave. A record low has been reached for the sea ice surrounding Antarctica.
Scientists have said that the current situation is a manifestation of the anticipated climate crisis rather than an unforeseen escalation in warming.
Certain researchers believe that the occurrence of El Niño could contribute to 2023 becoming the hottest year on record, with the most significant surge in heat likely to materialise in 2024.
A newly released report by the WMO and the UK Met Office has estimated a 66% probability that global annual temperatures will surpass pre-industrial levels by 1.5 degrees Celsius for a minimum of one year before 2027.
Chris Hewitt, the director of climate services at the WMO, said, “This is not to say that in the next five years we would exceed the 1.5C level specified in the Paris agreement because that refers to long-term warming over many years.”
“However, it is yet another wake-up call that we are not yet going in the right direction to limit the warming to within the targets designed to substantially reduce the impacts of climate change,” he continued.
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