SLOVAKIA: In a closely contested election in Slovakia, the populist former Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Smer party is currently leading, receiving more support than its rival Progressive Slovakia.
With over 98% of districts reporting, Smer is poised to secure over 23% of the vote, while Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia (PS) follows closely with over 17% and Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas with 15%.
This election’s outcome is likely to intensify concerns regarding Slovakia’s future foreign policy direction. Robert Fico, aged 59, has pledged to halt military assistance to Ukraine, voiced criticism of sanctions against Russia, and campaigned against LGBTQ+ rights.
Initially, exit polls had suggested that PS was in the lead, raising expectations within the country’s liberal camp. However, as the votes were tallied throughout the night, those hopes were dashed.
The shape of Slovakia’s upcoming government remains uncertain, and much hinges on intricate coalition-building with smaller parties, including Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas and Igor Matovič’s OĽaNO.
Pellegrini, a former colleague of Robert Fico and the leader of Hlas, could hold the key to forming a government. His party has so far refrained from declaring its preferred alliance but is widely thought to lean towards partnering with Smer over the more socially liberal PS.
The party that emerges as the largest is expected to receive a mandate from President Zuzana Čaputová to lead negotiations for assembling a parliamentary majority and, if successful, a government.
A government led by Robert Fico and his Smer-SSD party could see Slovakia, a NATO member, join Hungary, challenging the EU’s consensus on supporting Ukraine just as the EU seeks to maintain unity in opposing Russia’s invasion.
“We do want to evaluate everything, so we will wait for the final count,” said Robert Kalinak, a Smer-SSD candidate and a longstanding ally of Fico. He added that the party would provide a comprehensive statement on the election results later on Sunday.
On the other hand, the PS party has been a proponent of maintaining Slovakia’s strong support for Ukraine. It is also likely to adopt a liberal stance within the EU, advocating for issues such as majority voting to enhance the EU’s flexibility, green policies, and LGBTQ+ rights.
Simecka has not abandoned hope of potentially forming the next government, depending on the alignment of smaller allies in the final results.
The European parliamentarian, former reporter, and Oxford graduate Simecka told supporters, “It remains our aim for Slovakia to have after this election a stable pro-European government that will care for the rule of law and which begins to solve and invest in areas key for our future.”
The incoming government in the nation of 5.5 million is set to inherit a significant budget deficit, which is projected to be the highest in the euro zone.
Fico’s rise in popularity can be attributed to dissatisfaction with a divided centre-right coalition, whose government collapsed last year, leading to the early election.
During his campaign, he emphasised concerns about the increasing number of migrants passing through Slovakia en route to western Europe.
Fico’s stance aligns with the traditionally positive sentiments towards Russia held by many Slovaks, a sentiment that has gained momentum on social media since the Ukraine war began.
In a similar vein to Hungary’s leader Viktor Orbán, he has also committed to stopping military aid to Ukraine and pursuing peace talks. However, Ukraine and its allies have rejected this position because they believe it would only embolden Russia.
Partial results and media projections suggest that the far-right Republika party, which some people viewed as a potential ally for Fico but found unacceptable, is unlikely to win any seats.
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