INDIA: India is facing an increasing threat from heatwaves, with over 90% of the country now in the “extremely cautious” or “danger zone” for their impacts, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Cambridge.
The report also warned that heatwaves had impeded India’s progress towards achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals more significantly than previously thought and that current assessment metrics may not fully capture the impacts of climate change-related heatwaves on the country.
The study used a heat index to measure the effect of temperature and humidity on the human body, as well as a climate vulnerability index that considers socioeconomic, livelihood, and biophysical factors to study the impact of heatwaves. Using data from state-level climate vulnerability indicators, the researchers found that even areas previously classified as “low” vulnerability were now at high risk from heatwaves.
The researchers urged India to reassess its climate vulnerabilities to meet the SDGs, warning that failure to address heatwave impacts could slow progress towards sustainable development.
Delhi was highlighted as particularly vulnerable to severe heatwave impacts, with the city’s recent state action plan for climate change failing to reflect this. The report noted that even low-vulnerability areas in Delhi were at high heatwave risk due to the high intensity of development and resulting heat island formation, as well as other factors like the concentration of slum populations, lack of access to basic amenities, and poor housing conditions.
The study also revealed that heatwaves had claimed over 17,000 lives in India over the past 50 years, with 706 heatwave incidents occurring from 1971-2019. India saw its warmest February since records were kept in 1901 in 2023, and the third driest and warmest March in 121 years occurred in 2022.
Above-normal maximum temperatures are predicted for most parts of the country from April to June this year. During this period, above-normal heatwave days are expected in central, east, and northwest India.
A report by the McKinsey Global Institute warns that heat-related stress could affect around 380 million Indian workers, or 75% of the workforce, leading to a potential loss of 2.5% to 4.5% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product per year by 2030.
The authors of the Cambridge study called for immediate action to address the impact of heatwaves on India, including the implementation of heat-action plans that consider the heat index, as well as measures to improve access to basic amenities, healthcare, and housing. They warned that failure to act now could seriously affect the country’s sustainable development and future economic growth.
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